My First warning was on 26 February 2020 on Corona Virus:
By Ahmad Jawad
Here are extracts of a most useful article by Tomas Pueyo which should be read for inspiration & learning that how risk assessment should be made. Read full article, link at the end.
The coronavirus is coming to you.
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
THIS WILL HAPPEN:
1.Your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
2.Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
3.Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
4.They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow but Today.
1.That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.
2.We don’t know the number of true cases, but it’s much higher than the official one. It’s not in the hundreds. It’s in the thousands, maybe more.
You might have fears today: What if I overreact? Will people laugh at me? Will they be angry at me? Will I look stupid? Won’t it be better to wait for others to take steps first? Will I hurt the economy too much?
But in 2–4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won’t criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision.
Countries that act fast reduce the number of deaths at least by 10 times. Japan, Singapore, Turkey are examples.
What Will Be the Pressure on the System
Around 20% of cases require hospitalization, 5% of cases require the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and around 1% require very intensive help, with items such as ventilators or ECMO (extra-corporeal oxygenation).
LEARNING FROM ITALY:
This is the menu that Italy has put in front of all of us:
• Nobody can enter or exit lockdown areas, unless there are proven family or work reasons. • Movement inside the areas is to be avoided, unless they are justified for urgent personal or work reasons and can’t be postponed. • People with symptoms (respiratory infection and fever) are “highly recommended” to remain home. • Standard time off for healthcare workers is suspended • Closure of all educational establishments (schools, universities…), gyms, museums, ski stations, cultural and social centers, swimming pools, and theaters. • Bars and restaurants have limited opening times from 6am to 6pm, with at least one meter (~3 feet) distance between people. • All pubs and clubs must close. • All commercial activity must keep a distance of one meter between customers. Those that can’t make it happen must close. Temples/Mosques can remain open as long as they can guarantee this distance. • Family and friends hospital visits are limited • Work meetings must be postponed. Work from home must be encouraged. • All sports events and competitions, public or private, are canceled. Important events can be held under closed doors.
Then two days later, they added:
No, in fact, you need to close all businesses that aren’t crucial. So now we’re closing all commercial activities, offices, cafes and shops. Only transportation, pharmacies, groceries will remain open.”
This is an exponential threat. Every day counts. When you’re delaying by a single day a decision, you’re not contributing to a few cases maybe. There are probably hundreds or thousands of cases in your community already. Every day that there isn’t social distancing, these cases grow exponentially.
LAST TWO MONTHS, WORLD WAS LOOKING AT CHINA AS VICTIM AND THOUGHT IT WAS JUST CHINA. NOW CHINA WILL BE OUT OF THIS BY END OF THIS MONTH AND REST OF THE WORLD WILL BE VICTIM. LEARN FROM CHINA.
THANKS TO TOMAS PUEYO FOR CREATING AWARENESS.