By Ahmad Jawad
Writer is Chief Visionary Officer of World’s First Smart Thinking Tank ” Beyond The Horizon” and most diverse professional of Pakistan. See writer’s profile at http://beyondthehorizon.com.pk/about/
Following are top six factors which enabled survival of Nawaz Sharif in last 3 years & some of them will continue to help till 2018:
1. International Oil Prices.
2. Raheel Sharif as Army Chief.
4. APS attack.
5. Kashmir escalation.
6. KPK could not become or could not be projected as Naya Pakistan.
Tremendous decrease in Oil prices allowed Nawaz Sharif to survive amid weak economy, high import bill, poor governance & death trap of circular debt.
A professional Army Chief like Raheel Sharif prevented Army take over during Dharna when most ripe conditions of civil disobedience was created in the history of Pakistan. On the other hand, helpless & poor security of Civil Govt would have never any chance of success against the terrorism scenario of 2013. Only a professional & focused Army Chief could do it.
Monsters in the shape of Altaf Hussain & Zardari were chained by Raheel Sharif, the benefit of such iron control went to Nawaz Sharif to control two of his uncontrolled political opponents with least effort. This allowed best peaceful & sustainable picture of Karachi in last 30 years. Again peaceful & stable Karachi went to Sharif advantage.
Baluchistan gained some stability & better control but again credit goes to Raheel Sharif but benefit goes to Nawaz Sharif.
CPEC well negotiated by Army in terms of its viability & security dropped like a gift from heaven to give economical oxygen to suffocating Sharif rule.
The side effects of unfortunate APS attack was like a saviour to the political quagmire of Sharif suffering at the hands of Dharna.
Indigenous Kashmir movement & follies of Modi & Ajit Doval made Kashmir an international issue with least efforts by Pakistan’s foreign affairs experts. This again goes to the advantage of Nawaz Sharif. Any further escalation from India will carry the effect of APS attack & all political forces will be asked or expected to stand behind Nawaz Sharif.
KPK could not become or could not be projected to appear as the ” Naya Pakistan” according to dream conceived by Imran Khan or visualised by a common man’s expectation. So no real threatening political model could be placed in competition to Nawaz Sharif.
Only threat to the survival of Nawaz Sharif is consistent, determined & strong protest movements by Imran Khan. Any one of them might turn into a game changer today or tomorrow.
It is interesting to note neither Metro nor Orange train like projects carry any significance towards the survival of Nawaz Sharif in last three years.
All factors like oil prices, CPEC, Kashmir, are expected to continue fuelling the survival of Nawaz Sharif.
There will be no more Raheel Sharif after November 2016, who proved biggest advantage to Nawaz Sharif in last three years. This factor will be unpredictable after November 2016.
There is less likelihood that a dream model can be created in KPK before 2018 so this factor might contribute to the advantage of PMLN in 2018 elections & become a disadvantage to PTI.